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Speed Researching & Reading
I teach a graduate Feasibility & Market Analytics course in our MSERE program at UMKC. As I tell my students, feasibility analysis is a creative, dynamic analytical process that depends on the ability to both think critically and to apply principles of design thinking. At the same time, feasibilty analysis should be built on rigorous analytics that enfold the space-time and money-time dimensions of real estate. However, analytics alone are not an adequate foundation; the analyst must be forward-looking, anticipating changes while working to reduce the risk associated with acting under conditions of uncertainty which due to COVID-19 and other shocks have been amplified. This page is based on some of the resources I use to get myself and my students thinking in an inclusive, holistic, and interdisciplinary manner.
At this point in time, we are faced with a fundamental challenge; how do we "future-proof" our thinking and analysis? In this environment of uncertainty, it is critical that we keep our minds open and do not embrace everything we read. I believe it is simply too early to have a clear vision of the future and too risky to depend on others thinking for us. So, my recommendation is we borrow a couple of lines from Dr. Suess; "You have to be a speedy reader 'cause there's so, so much to read!" This page is designed to help us get started speed reading and critical thinking. The objective is not to make sages of us all, but to help us expand our scope of inquiry and allow us to sift and winnow through what we read and hear to arrive at our own "vision" and act accordingly.
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Optimized Links
You are one click away from a wealth of articles that can help you avoid getting caught with "your eyes shut." Please note that these queries are dynamic. Each time you click on the link, the results will be updated to allow you to stay current and expand your thinking as we go forward.
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Space-Time Dimensions of Real Estate
The impacts of these changes affect the spatial side of the real estate market with respect to what occurs, where it occurs, and when it occurs. The forces are dynamic warranting close monitoring with respect to supply and demand fundamentals.
Airbnb <-- Click link to search
The Airbnb industry has experienced dramatic growth, both in the US and across the globe. This search returns about 9,320 articles that explain the Airbnb movement. Airbnb has been disruptive to many sectors of the real estate industry, especially the hotel and apartment sectors. In terms of fundamentals, the innovation has created supply-side problems, dramatically increasing the availability of short-term rental options. Airbnb has also created unexpected issues for the character of the environs surrounding converted space in terms of increasing turnover rates for direct occupants, and attracting non-traditional "neighbors" with different ties to the area.
Autonomous Vehicles <-- Click link to search
The emergence of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) has garnered signficant attention in the real estate industry. While the innovation is relatively new, it has generated signficant attention as noted by some 2,980 articles exploring the impact of AVs on a range of urban issues (e.g., government budgeting and operations, outmigration, and tourism). The AV industry has garnered the attention of the real estate indusry, causing many to struggle with the appropriate mix of parking for new development. Authors have also explored the impact AVs will have on situs or locational decisions of urban workers, as the innovation may make commuting less stressful than it is in many congested markets. AVs also have the potential for significant impact on the logistics and distribution industries, removing some of the limitations imposed by the restrictions on drivers that limits their range of transit. While the techhology is still in development, significant progress is being made that will bring these issues to the forefront.
Co-working <-- Click link to search
The co-working phenomenon is not new, although it has received more attention recently as companies seek more efficient ways to operate and reduce costs at the same time. A search of co-working reveals several related concepts including teleworking, flexible working, knowledge workers, incubators spaces, and flexible offices to name a few. The phenomenon and related innovations in work is a global phenomenon, with the Google Scholar search returns some 3,870 articles beginning with the evolution of co-working, the current state of affairs, and the outlook. Of particular interest are the linkages between co-working and entrepreneurship and innovation, businesse sectors for whom co-working has been especially attractive. The trend is also recognized among local economic development agencies, as well as cities and seeking to attract knowledge workers and help revitalize inner city neighborhoods. Given the success in the corporate world, interest has been growign in adopting co-working strategies by other industries
E-commerce <-- Click link to search
The term "e-commerce" is a broad term enfolding a wide array of innovations in the marketing, distribution, and fulfillment of goods and services. Indeed, when linked to real estate the term yields some 70,200 articles through Google Scholar. These articles include descriptive articles that explain what E-commerce stands for as well as its evolution. These articles are far-reaching including impacts on the full spectrum of space-time and money-time dimensions of real estate. To date, e-commerce has caused a transformational and irreversible change in the spatio-temporal-financial interactions that lie at the heart of real estate and the industry that focuses on it. The growth in e-commerce has also disrupted local, state, and federal government creating challenges and opportunities that have played out in terms of the "urban form" and provision of services. Despite the ubiquitous nature of e-commerce that affects all aspects of personal, business and governmental operations, it is important to note innovations continue to emerge.
Online Shopping <-- Click link to search
Online shopping has become so ubiqitous that it might not seem like a new trend at all. Indeed, the 12,500 articles on the topic trace it back to the broader e-commerce revoluion from which it emanated. As might be expected, the impacts of online shopping cut across the real estate industry, affecting the "Situs" (that an Urban Land Economics Theory you should look up)" decision of retailers, and by extension, restauranteers, service providers, health care providers, and dog groomers. When you lump it all together, its part of the broader "take to the customer" movement that has permeated all dimensions of real estate industry, including logistics and supply chain where the "last mile" struggles continue as the need for instant gratification shows no signs of abating. In addition to pointing out the broad impacts of online everything on real estate, authors explore and share case studies of how to retrofit functionally obsolescent retail real estate.
Remote Work <-- Click link to search
Some might think the trend toward remote work emanated from the COVID-19 pandemic. While the pandemic has no doubt accelerated the trend, the 2,200 articles point out that the trend had already been playing out, that it was amplified by the pandemic rather than caused by it. Without downplaying the human and financial costs associated with abrupt shift to remote working, employees who were in jobs for which remote working was viable proved to be relatively resilient. This was especially true for those working for employers offering products and services that could accomodate remote work, and had the infrastructure or ability to deploy it to support remote working. Despite the ability to adopt to remote working, many of us look forward to going back to the office or classroom. What the future holds is uncertain and hard to predict as noted by Yogi Berra "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." hus, the real question is "how far will the pendulum swing" and, is the a cyclical phenomenon or a structural change? Clearly, managers and heads of HR have a lot to learn on how to manage remote workers and retain a sense of culture, although some companies have flourished in this regard.
Smart Cities <-- Click link to search
The smart city movement has spread across the country, with many cities embracing the movement, albeit at different paces and practices. The 11,200 articles linking smart cities and real estate include some basic introductions to the concept, as well as examples of how cities are transforming. As with other innovations that are pushed out, potential beneficiaries of smart city data are still trying to figure out how best to incorporate the wealth of data generated by cities in decision-making and business practices. However, the literature does give some examples of how users have been able to monetize the trend and take advantage of the promises it holds and help demistify the movement. At the same time, authors note some of the caveats associated with the movement as well as point out that it is not the panacea some thought it would be by this point in time. However, the future is now so this trend should be closely monitored by those seeking competitive advantage as early-adoptors.
Virtual Office <-- Click link to search
While COVID-19 accelerated has interest in virtual offices (and virtual living) the trend had been occuring for some time. Technological innovations have gone a long way to advancing the state of the art for virtual offices, with many more on the horizon. Indeed, the speed of technological innovations continues to far outpace the speed of management and leadership changes needed to nurture virtual officing, with some discussion of "virtual organizations." That has renewed interest in the organizational structure and support which like most other "innovations" is not actually new as evidenced by the 1994 article entitled "AAt core, it's the virtual organization." The virtual office trend has also affected the physical office, as companies shifted to open offices to accomodate increases in virtual work and collaboration among employees.
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Shocks & Challenges
In addition to innovations and trends that are driving a regime shift in real estate, the industry has been forced to respond to several abrupt shocks (e.g., COVID-19) and longer-term challenges. Since these forces are still playing out and require strategic responses, it is important that we stay abreast of the latest thinking.
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Access to Health
Affordable Housing
COVID-19 and real estate.
Global Warming
Resilience
Sustainability
Urban Blight
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On-going Trends
These are some trends that have been playing out for some time but are still newsworthy as the impact they have on the real estate industry has been dramatic and continue to play out.
Note: annotations are being processed; click on the links to explore the concepts and get real-time updates.
Demographics
Globalization
Private Equity
Value-add
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One of my core positions on real estate is its dual nature: space-time, and money-time. The logo presents this duality, withe spatial side depicted as the bottom plain, and the financial side the top plain. I argue that real estate decisions must be based on a recognition of this duality; that the spatial market is inextricably linked to the financial side and vice versa. In addition, there are three major parties of interest represented by the arrows: space users, space producers, and space facilitators (e.g., professionals, entities, and government bodies). Technology affects both plains, as well as the major players that make up the market, as well as the built environment. This page is organized to help you stay ahead of the data.
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What's Up Visitors
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Objective of Speed Researching
While the sheer volume of articles generated through these searches might be daunting, drawing on insights and lessons learned from others outside of the real estate industry can go a long way toward empowering us as we develop our own visions of the future. Visioning is a challenging task as pointed out by Yogi Berra Quotes, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." He also pointed out "The future ain't what it used to be," which is one thing we do know for sure. So, we should embrace the message offered by Dr. Suess, "The more things that you read, the more things you will know." The objective of this page is to create a dynamic library of relevant readings that may help us stay ahead of the curve and apply critical thinking about the future of our industry and world.
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Money-Time Dimensions of Real Estate
These concepts and innovations primarly affect the capital or financial side of the real estate market. They, influencing the magnitude of capital flows attracted to real estate --debt and equity-- as well as the cost of capital in terms of mortgage rates and required yields. The concepts also affect the allocation of capital in with respect to geographic areas or targeted investment vehicles.
Blockchain <-- Click link to search
The application of blockchain technology to real estate has received significant attention with some arguing that the innovation will disrupt the industry and compress the time required to exhange property interests. As evidence of interest in the potential contribution of blockchain to real estate, a Google Scholar search linking the two concepts returns some 11,500 articles. Despite the promise of blockchain, research reveals a number of barriers to entry (e.g., legal challenges) that have moderated the diffusion of innovation. In addition to transactions, blockchain technology has been extended to building construction, e-commere logistics, land registration, document management, and other areas of real estate. The trend has impacted the US market, as well as globally as noted by the emergence of the Foundation for International Blockchain and Real Estate Expertise (FIBREE).
Crowdfunding <-- Click link to search
The money-time side of the real estate market has undergone a number of significant changes, many of which were triggered by cyclical shocks. The adoption of crowdfunding for real estate has received significant interest as noted by the 8,400 articles extending the approach to real estate. Despite a number of legal and market challenges that have slowed the diffusion of innovation, advances that have been made warrant monitoring crowdfunding.
Cryptocurrency <-- Click link to search
The real estate industry has taken notice of cryptocurrency resulting in a dramatic increase in research linking cryptocurrency to real estate as noted by the 5,920 articles retrieved through the Google Scholar search. The literature includes a basic introduction cryptocurrency, explaining the introduction of the innovation and its global spread. Despite recognizing how cryptocurrency is being extended to the real estate sector, researchers also note some of the legal challenges and market resistence that must be overcome before widespread adoption. The diffusion of cryptocurrency innovation has included several phases including application to payment systems and adoption of smart contracts.
ESG Investing <-- Click link to search
Impact Investing <-- Click link to search
The term "Impact Investing" (aka social investing) in real estate has received signficant attention as investors, companies, and professionals seek to "make a difference" with their dollars and careers. As noted in the 2,200 search results, the industry has faced a number of challenges with realizing the promises of impact investing including stringent requirements imposed on fiduciaries. Impact investing has achieved momentum and has spawned a number of innovations including social impact bonds and the emergence of hybird entities in which social goals are an integral part of their charters and investment strategies. Impact investing has an important and well-documented role in increasing equity and social justice, as well as helping create vibrant, livable cities.
Opportunity Zones <-- Click link to search
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2018 created the Opportunity Zone program to attract capital and economic development to targeted areas that were blighted, distressed, or otherwise in need of revitalization. In the continental US, there are 7,776 Qualified Opportunity Zones. The launch of the OZ program was an accelerated process, with sponsors raising capital from investors before the final rules for the program were codified. The articles retrieved in the Google Scholar search range from descriptive to those predicting how the program will affect the market. Researchers have also pointed out concerns with the program including the political and strategic forces that influenced the designation of QOZs and concern over community engagement in proposed development.
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Technology-Time Dimensions of Real Estate
These forces affect real estate market dynamics, including how data are accessed and processed to support knowledge acquisition and decision making. The forces also affect how real estate and related industry professionals access data, as well as how and where goods and services are provided.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) <-- Click link to search
To some, the phrase "artificial intelligence" may be an oxymoron (I had to look that up too). However, the 20,300 articles linking AI to real estate reveals that more has been going on than meets the eye, at least for many of us. To some, the term may be dismissed as a passing fad that will never disrupt the real estate industry. As you will see with a click of the link, the reality is quite different. AI, expert systems, neural networks, and related innovations have already penetrated the market. Applications range from the mundane but critical document classification and information extraction, to predictive analytics applied to appraisal, financing, investment, and market analysis.
Big Data <-- Click link to search
One of the innovations that has disrupted real estate analytics and opened the door to applications of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning is the explosion in "big data." Indeed, a keyword search linking "big data" to real estate yields some 17,000 independent articles. In this context, big data is distinguished by the fact that it comes from diverse sources outside of the traditional real estate domain, it comes at fast an accelerating pace, and it is, well simply "big" in the sense there's a lot of it. So, it raises the question of "what to do with it" without falling into the analysis/paralysis trap. Fortunately, researchers have a lot to contribute to our understanding of big data and its potential applications across the industry. For an example of big data and real estate award-winning a2V-Lb: Abandoned to Vibrant Land Bank Housing in Kansas City, Missouri which was received a 2018 Aleryx Excellence Award.
Drones <-- Click link to search
To some, drones might appear to be an entertaining and novel innovation with limited application to the real estate industry. However, as noted in the 11,500 articles exploring the connections between drones and real estate, among innovators and early adopters, the technological innovation has already had a significant impact on the real estate industry. The real-world applications run the gamut of space-time dimension of the market, ranging from delineating space through mapping and surveying applications, to monitoring land use. Drones are also used in marketing real estate, including generation of videos and photographs in an efficient and creative manner not economically feasible through more traditional means. Drones also offer significant potential for improving services from third party providers including appraisers, insurers, brokers, and investors. Innovations in commercial application of drones are also occuring in logistics and distribution, with the potential to help solve the "last mile" challenge faced in online commerce. While drones offer much promise, the innovation also raises concerns related to privacy, trespassing, safety, and other issues with legal implications.
Internet of Things<-- Click link to search
A search for the Internet of Things and real estate reveals the breath of research related to the intersection of the IoT and real estate as revealed by the 16,300 articles retrieved from the Google Scholar search. The articles span a wide range of topics beginning with an introduction to the IoT and the hardware and software technologies upon which it is built. Researchers also discuss its pervasive impact on society and various entities, as well as impacts on the full range of spatial and financial dimensions of real estate. For example, on the spatial side, researchers explore the impact of IoT on space users including households, companies, and governmental agencies. Authors also explore the impact of IoT on the finanncial side of the industry including design, construction, development, property management, transactions, and investment. In addition to the real estate market, the IoT has had significant impacts on the built environment, its management, and operations. The IoT has also been an enabler of the smart city movement, open government, and other initiatives that indirectly affect the real estate market and open the door to more advanced analytics and decision support.
Machine Learning <-- Click link to search
While somewhat novel, the application of Machine Learning (ML) techniques to real estate is well documented in the literature, with over 16,300 articles on the topic. Articles on ML range from the basic introduction to ML and its linkages to data mining, Artificial Intelligence, and predictive analytics. As noted, ML has been applied to a wide range of real estate activities including predicting building energy consumption, transaction volume and pricing, automated valuation, mass appraisal, customer analysis, and investment performance. Researchers also discuss some of the caveats related to ML and the need for machine-human interaction.
PropTech <-- Click link to search
The term "PropTech" is a broad concept that is widely recognized in professional circles although the keyword search yielded some 524 articles which is relatively low compared to the other concepts covered on this page. However, it should be noted this apparent lack of attention is not a commentary on the lack of interest in the topic, but in the fact researchers tend to focus on the a narrower band of innovations that operate under the PropTech umbrella. This can be attributable in part to the fact narrower concepts are more discrete and manageable from a research perspective. The articles that are available document the evolution of the PropTech sector as evidenced by a number of "special issues" of real estate publications, as well as participation in professional meetings and association. Indeed, many real estate associations have called for greater alignment between CRE companies and professionals and PropTech vendors. Researchers also monitoring the emergence of new technologies that are being extended to real estate and have the potential to disrupt established practices.
Virtual Reality <-- Click link to search
The term Virtual Reality (VR) is often used along with "Augmented Reality (AR)." with AR returning some 17,000 articles compared to 24,800 for virtual reality. While the two concepts have some parallels, there are some differences as pointed out in the literature. Briefly, VR is a more immersive technology which requires specialized viewing equipment to experience computer-generated visualizations that take you into an artificial world. On the other hand, AR uses technology to create a visual experience drawing from real-world images which are often synchronized to provide different perspectives of an object or location of interst. in the underlying technology as well as how they are deployed in real estate. Regardless of the jargon, AR/VR have been disrupting the space-time side of the industry beginning with design and planning, to construction, operation, and disposition. AR/VR have also had a significant impact on the transaction side of the industry, affecting marketing, valuation, investment, and dispositions. In addition to these more visible (pun intended) impacts, AR/VR innovations are providing more efficiency and transparency to the market.
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