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June 23, 2017
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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EconWatch (being revised)

The economy has begun to show some signs of stabilization, with the rate of decline in a number of economic indicators slowing down. Despite this “improvement,” there is significant concern that the recovery may falter unless the housing market and employment scene begin to show more strength. The latter is particularly important to consumers who remain on the sidelines and thus temper the upside potential of the economy. 

With respect to commercial real estate, we can expect significant additional erosion in values over the next 12-18 months despite the recent declines in mark-to-market properties which are down some 35% from the peak in 2008. This situation will be accelerated by two major drivers.

  • First, the wave of distressed assets will start flooding the market over the near term, rippling well into 2010.
  • Second, a tsunami of refinancing activity will hit the market beginning in 2010. Absent dramatic interventsion, the industry has no safety net to fall back on.

In this environment, the state of the economy will be less important to commercial real estate than the state of the capital markets, capital flows and real estate fundamentals. However, it would not be prudent to ignore the economic environment as the situation could become even worse than it will if the fledgling recovery stumbles. Following are some economic and capital market indicators to watch.

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.Jobless Claims Slowing
Federal Funds Rates

Fed Funds Nov 09

The Fed has done it's part; can it hold in light of inflation pressure? MORE....

Total Retail Sales

Total Retail Sales

The plunge in retail sales has flattened out; is there a rebound coming? MORE....

Housing Starts

Housing Starts

The housing market may have hit bottom in minds of homebuilders...

Business Spending

Business Spending

Global Business Confidence

Global Business Confidence

Housing Trouble

Housing Trouble

Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales

Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales

 

Business Credit

Business Credit

Stock Market Flash

Global Stocks

Global Stock market as of 11/19/09

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)

The Dow

 

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